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Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach
https://repo.qst.go.jp/records/46893
https://repo.qst.go.jp/records/46893960234fe-2bd8-4654-9082-086b05331d28
| Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2014-11-06 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||
| アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
| 著者 |
Ishikawa, Tomoki
× Ishikawa, Tomoki× Ohba, Hisateru× Yokooka, Yuki× Nakamura, Kozo× Ogasawara, Katsuhiko× 横岡 由姫 |
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| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | Background In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision,has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. \nMethod We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. \nResult & conclusion As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians. |
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| 書誌情報 |
Human Resources for Health (Online Only http://www.human-resources-health.com) 巻 11, p. 41, 発行日 2013-08 |
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| ISSN | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | 1478-4491 | |||||
| DOI | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | 10.1186/1478-4491-11-41 | |||||
| 関連サイト | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.human-resources-health.com/content/11/1/41 | |||||
| 関連名称 | http://www.human-resources-health.com/content/11/1/41 | |||||
